The Discipline of Value Betting: Patience Pays
They also offer each way bets. A £10 each way bet consists of a £10 bet on the horse to win and a £10 bet on them to place (for example, to finish in the top 3 places).
As you can see, I have had success in various sports and markets, demonstrating that every market can be profitable with value betting. The key to success with value betting is to place as many bets as possible and to be patient. Many people give up on value betting too quickly after only a few hundred or thousand bets, but the truth is that value betting requires a large sample size to reflect its long-term profitability.
Following these sudden changes of odds is called “steam chasing”. As long as there’s a sound reason for the odds change, one way to capitalise on this is to place a bet with a bookmaker that is slower to respond and hasn’t yet cut their odds.
The Psychology of Value Betting: Why It Works
I want to note that while bet365 has been the most profitable for me, I also use other bookmakers to diversify my bets and reduce my risk. Additionally, due to stake restrictions, I currently use 4 separate accounts to place all of my bet365 bets. Despite the restrictions, I am still able to earn 5-600€ per month per account with the value bets I find.
The type of change of interest to us is one caused by expert opinion, whether that’s from professional gamblers or betting syndicates. When this leads to a large volume of bets being placed on a certain outcome within a short space of time, this causes a dramatic and rapid odds change.
It's important to note that value betting software does not predict which team or player will win. Rather, it simply identifies when the odds have value, meaning that there is a higher probability of a particular outcome than what the bookmaker's odds suggest. Over time, as you place more value bets, the profitability of those bets will reflect in your profits.
Bookmaker and exchange odds aren’t static, changing in response to bets placed on the market. Odds sometimes change suddenly and simultaneously at multiple bookmakers. This sudden change is known as steam. There can be numerous causes of this change, including team news, player injury, weather, insider knowledge, or sharp bettors having differing opinions to the bookmakers on their odds.
Wrapping Up: The Treasure Hunt of Value Betting
In these markets, there is far less information available, and of lower quality, compared to higher-profile events. Bookmakers will be less able to set their odds accurately as they are with higher profile events, giving an edge to sharp bettors who have superior information.
Fair odds accurately reflect how likely a bet is to win.
Hello everyone, I wanted to provide an update on my value betting journey using RebelBetting, 5 months after my original post. For those who may have missed it, 5 months ago I made a post about my experience with value betting and RebelBetting. I received a lot of feedback and messages asking for updates on my progress, so I wanted to share my results and lessons learned since then.
In betting, is the average profit you’ll make from placing a bet.
It’s much harder to have an edge like this in high-profile competitions like the Premier League. This is why some bettors specialise in obscure sports, leagues, and betting markets. Examples include lower leagues, less-followed foreign football leagues, and infrequent events like the Olympic Games.
Value betting is a fundamental concept in financial trading.
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One way to identify value betting opportunities is through .
Examples of asymmetric information are being in possession of early news about a sporting event, for example a player injury or withdrawal, or having a greater insight into a betting market’s statistics.
Once a value betting opportunity is identified, determine:
Additionally, here is a graph showing the total number of bets I've placed per day. On average, I place around 70 to 160 bets per day, with more bets placed during weekends due to the increased number of value bets available.